Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model

North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) have considerable interannual variability, with La Niña and the positive phase of Meridional Mode (AMM) tending to drive active hurricane seasons, El Niño negative AMM often driving inactive seasons. Here, we analyze how seasons may change in future using high resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We performed atmosphere-only simulations forced by sea-surface temperature patterns characteristic jointly, historical climates. Projected TCs become more frequent approximately 34% during 66% AMM, a significant increase portion intense TCs. Warmer SSTs TC potential intensity, reduced wind shear increased mid-tropospheric humidity further supporting activity.